Sunday, 22 April 2007

Statistics : 6 Seaters v 10 Seaters

I did some number crunching today, which came out with some interesting statistics regarding the 121 SNG games I have played over the last few weeks in the $22 rooms in Party Poker. (yes, I know, its a lot).

Played 121, Won 21 (17%), In the money finishes : 60 (50%)
Cost of play : $2662, Winnings : $3672 = Net Gain : $1010
Average profit per game : $8.35 ($1010/121)
Average return : 38% ($8.35 / $22)

I found it really interesting to see this sort of breakdown - to be able to put an exact figure of my expected value for a game. If i join a $22 game, I would expect on average to walk away with $30. Not too shabby for a fish like me.

Within those overall figures were some VERY interesting sub-trends though.

Pretty consistent percentages across the 3 formats
49% 6 Player
53% 10 Player
45% 10 Player Speed
50% Overall
i.e. My instinct was that I had far more money finishes in the 6 player rooms - but the "spread" across the 3 formats is pretty narrow.

This is a real jaw-dropping insight (to me, at least)
$5.13 6 Player ($354 Profit / 69 games)
$17.33 10 Player ($520 Profit / 30 games)
$6.18 10 Player Speed ($136 Profit / 22 games)
$8.35 Overall

My profitability in the standard 10 player rooms is around triple that of the 6 player & 10-Player-Speed formats. Aye carumba. I think I have played enough games for this to be identified as a genuine trend, rather than statistical variance, and it is not at all what I had thought was the case. Shows the value of keeping records.

  • I can make the prize money about half the time in all 3 formats
  • The premium for winning the 10-seaters (a $100/$60/$40 split) means that the profitability for those are higher than the 6 seaters (a $72/$48 split)
  • For whatever reason, once I get to the money, I am more likely to win a 10-seater standard than a 10-seater speed.
Interesting stuff. Must think about this a bit more.

1 comment:

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