Monday, 23 April 2007

Apr 23 : Can't seal the deal ($977 : Up $68)

Played very well today - with a bit more luck, it could have been a really good one.

Games Played
1 x $22 SNG (6 Seater)
8 x $22 SNG (10 Seater)
1 x $22 SNG (10 Seater , Speed)
Wins (SNG)
5 money finishes, 5 non-money finishes
4 x 2nds (10 Seater), 1 x 2nd (6 Seater)
SNG Cost of play $220, Winnings $288, Net Gain of $68
Bankroll up from $909 to $977

5 second place finishes with no wins is frustrating, but I am happy with the way I played in all but one of the heads up phase.

1 x Arrived heads up ultra-short stacked (9:1) so no realistic chance
3 x Played excellent heads up to get good chip leads, only to get outdrawn after getting my money in ahead with strong hands
1 x Got outplayed

Overall, I am much more confident with my heads up play than I was a couple of weeks ago - a controlled aggressive strategy now that puts 70-80% of opponents on the back foot folding a lot - by the time they work out I am raising and re-raising with less than premium hands, more often than not I have 60-70% of the chips and in a position to gamble to end the game.

I think I need to revisit my strategy for ending games though - I seem to be losing more than my fair share of "coin-flips" to end games. Maybe I need to be more patient? My general strategy is to build a 2:1 chip lead, then take a gamble with and ace, decent King, or pocket pair. Doesn't seem to be working out for me though. Need to consider whether I am getting my money in the wrong spots at "match point", so to speak.

Sunday, 22 April 2007

Apr 22 : Tourney Frustration ($909 down $69)

Played a couple of tourneys today just for variety - I wish I hadnt bothered. I don't yet have the patience for those, I must admit.

Fold Fold Fold, playing only premium hands early on, picking a spot to get your money in ahead.. then getting outdrawn to leave you short stacked and in pushbot mode. That has summed up my last 3 tourneys, unfortunately, including the two today. I have won a decent size tourney in the past (from memory, a $33 buy in with about 90 players), but they don't instinctively appeal to me while I am still prone to making big mistakes, and prone to getting really angry when hours of effort are binned by a bad beat.

Reverted to the SNG world after that, with a marginally above break-even performance over 6 games.

Games Played
1 x $55 Tourney
1 x $22 Tourney ($12 rebuy + 1 add-on)
6 x $22 SNG (10 Seater)
Wins (SNG)
2 money finishes, 4 non-money finishes
1 x Win, 1 x 3rd (10 Seater)
SNG Cost of play $132, Winnings $140, Net Gain of $8
Tourney Cost of play $77, No winnings, Net Loss of $77
Bankroll down from $978 to $909

Statistics : 6 Seaters v 10 Seaters

I did some number crunching today, which came out with some interesting statistics regarding the 121 SNG games I have played over the last few weeks in the $22 rooms in Party Poker. (yes, I know, its a lot).

Played 121, Won 21 (17%), In the money finishes : 60 (50%)
Cost of play : $2662, Winnings : $3672 = Net Gain : $1010
Average profit per game : $8.35 ($1010/121)
Average return : 38% ($8.35 / $22)

I found it really interesting to see this sort of breakdown - to be able to put an exact figure of my expected value for a game. If i join a $22 game, I would expect on average to walk away with $30. Not too shabby for a fish like me.

Within those overall figures were some VERY interesting sub-trends though.

Pretty consistent percentages across the 3 formats
49% 6 Player
53% 10 Player
45% 10 Player Speed
50% Overall
i.e. My instinct was that I had far more money finishes in the 6 player rooms - but the "spread" across the 3 formats is pretty narrow.

This is a real jaw-dropping insight (to me, at least)
$5.13 6 Player ($354 Profit / 69 games)
$17.33 10 Player ($520 Profit / 30 games)
$6.18 10 Player Speed ($136 Profit / 22 games)
$8.35 Overall

My profitability in the standard 10 player rooms is around triple that of the 6 player & 10-Player-Speed formats. Aye carumba. I think I have played enough games for this to be identified as a genuine trend, rather than statistical variance, and it is not at all what I had thought was the case. Shows the value of keeping records.

  • I can make the prize money about half the time in all 3 formats
  • The premium for winning the 10-seaters (a $100/$60/$40 split) means that the profitability for those are higher than the 6 seaters (a $72/$48 split)
  • For whatever reason, once I get to the money, I am more likely to win a 10-seater standard than a 10-seater speed.
Interesting stuff. Must think about this a bit more.

Apr 22 : Momentum Back ($978 : Up $70)

Took some time to analyse my results from my 6 and 10 player SNG games over the past month, which revealed some extremely surprising trends that took my by surprise. It turns out that my profitability in 10 player games is hugely superior to that in 6 player games. I will write specifically about this soon.

As a result, stayed in the 10 seaters today, with some decent success.

Games Played
3 x $22 SNG (10 Seater)
2 x $22 SNG (10 Seater, Speed)
3 money finishes, 2 non-money finishes
1 x Win (10 Seater), 1 x 3rd (10 Seater Speed), 1 x 3rd (10 Seater),
Cost of play $110, Winnings $180, Net Gain of $70
Bankroll up from $908 to $978

Saturday, 21 April 2007

Apr 21 : Short but Sweet ($908 : Up $100)

A welcome day of positive results, and gains in the bankroll.

Games Played

1 x $22 SNG (6 Seater)
3 x $22 SNG (10 Seater)
3 money finishes, 1 non-money finish
1 x Win (10 Seater), 1 x 2nd (6 seater), 1 x 3rd (10 Seater)
Cost of play $88, Winnings $188, Net Gain of $100
Bankroll up from $808 to $908

Friday, 20 April 2007

Apr 20 : Still Struggling ($808 - Down $71)

A bad day.

Games Played

1 x $55 SNG (10 Seater)
1 x $22 SNG (6 Seater)
3 x $22 SNG (10 Seater, Speed)
1 money finish, 4 non-money finishes
1 x Win (6 Seater)
Cost of play $143, Winnings $72, Net Loss of $71
Bankroll down from $879 to $808

Decided to have another dabble at a $55 SNG. Same conclusion as before - a surprisingly large number of maniacs / calling stations, but the cards not falling for me to be able to trap them. I have lost my apprehension of standing out as the obvious fish at the $55 level - but my bankroll is not yet big enough to support a long barren run at $55 a go, so I'll build up my bankroll to about $1500 before making more regular appearances at that level.

Dropped back down to the $22 rooms after that, playing a 6 player game that I dominated start to finish and won. Then had a spare half and hour that I decided I could squeeze at least one speed game into if I was lucky. Huge mistake, played like a maniac to try to speed things along, busted out of two games in the space of 5 minutes, then the third game overran and I had to again play like a maniac to end it quickly, losing again. What a total idiot. Playing that rushed is worse than being on tilt. $66 thrown away in double quick time - sometimes I need a good slapping.

Thursday, 19 April 2007

Apr 19 : Struggle Struggle ($ 879 : Down $4)

Boy oh boy its a struggle at the moment - can' t get a win for love nor money (mostly money). Another 10 games today without a victory, making a staggering 23 games since my last win!!! The bizarre thing is my play has been OK in about 75% of those games, but things just arent happening. A really weird feeling, but again doing a reasonable job of not getting too frustrated.

My standard of play is reasonable - 9 money finishes in the last 15 games doesnt happen by accident, but hit a brick wall in terms of actually winning a game.

Games Played
6 x $22 SNG (6 Seater)
3 x $22 SNG (10 Seater, Speed)
1 x $22 SNG (10 Seater)
5 money finishes, 5 non-money finishes
2 x 2nd (6 Seater), 3 x 3rds (10 Seater Speed),
Cost of play $220, Winnings $216, Net Loss of $4

With 9 ITM finishes, you would expect even the fishiest of fish to win at least one through random luck, but I havent managed it. But it just won't come my way - a combination of bad luck and declining confidence the most likely explanation. Wins are so critical, not just from a bankroll point of view because of the premium for winning, but because of the confidence it gives you too, confidence to be more aggressive which as everyone tells me, is the key to good poker.

Still, the money finishes are keeping the bankroll afloat, so that I only lost a token $4. Hopefully a long winning streak is somewhere just around the corner.